Thinking Skills
What is Base Rate?
The historical average for similar cases - what Kahneman calls the "outside view" - a powerful antidote to overconfidence in your own specific situation.
Go deeper
Read the full deep-dive that explains Base Rate in context - with examples, mechanics, and where it breaks.
Related terms
- First-Principles Thinking Breaking a problem down to its most fundamental, verifiable truths and building conclusions up from those alone, ignoring how it has always been done.
- Reasoning by Analogy Solving a problem by copying what already exists; efficient and good for incremental improvement, but it can never escape the assumptions baked into the template.
- 5 Whys A root-cause technique from Toyota: ask "Why?" five times in a row, each time targeting the previous answer, to move from a surface symptom to the real cause.
- Feynman Technique A four-step learning loop: pick a concept, explain it in plain language as if to a child, find where the explanation breaks down, then simplify and repeat.
- Systems Thinking Seeing a problem as a web of stocks, flows, delays, and feedback loops rather than isolated parts, so you can predict how it will push back over time.
- Reinforcing Loop A feedback loop that amplifies whatever is already happening, producing exponential growth or runaway collapse - the compound interest of systems.